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Economy of Turkey

Turkey's economy is a complex mix of traditional craftsmanship and modern industries, increasingly dominated by the latter. Turkey has a strong and rapidly growing private sector, yet the state still plays a major role in industry, banking, transport, and communications. In recent years, the Turkish economy has expanded strongly, registering growth rates of 8.9% and 7.4% for the 2004 and 2005 fiscal years, respectively.

Macro-economic trends

The CIA classifies Turkey as a developed country. Turkey is often classified as a newly industrialized country by economists and political scientists, and is a founding member of the OECD (1961) and the G-20 major economies (1999). Since December 31, 1995, Turkey is also a part of the EU Customs Union. Turkey's per-capita GDP places it among the upper-middle income countries. According to Forbes magazine, Istanbul, Turkey's financial capital, had a total of 35 billionaires as of March 2008 (up from 25 in 2007), ranking 4th in the world behind Moscow (74 billionaires), New York City (71 billionaires) and London (36 billionaires), while ranking above Hong Kong (30 billionaires), Los Angeles (24 billionaires), Mumbai (20 billionaires), San Francisco (19 billionaires), Dallas (15 billionaires) and Tokyo (15 billionaires).

Agricultural sector

The country's large agricultural sector accounted for 11.2% of the employment in 2006. As of March 2007, Turkey is the world's largest producer of hazelnut, cherry, fig, apricot, quince and pomegranate; the second largest producer of watermelon, cucumber and chickpea; the third largest producer of tomato, eggplant, green pepper, lentil and pistacchio; the fourth largest producer of onion and olive; the fifth largest producer of sugar beet; the sixth largest producer of tobacco, tea and apple; the seventh largest producer of cotton and barley; the eighth largest producer of almond; the ninth largest producer of wheat, rye and grapefruit, and the tenth largest producer of lemon. Turkey has been self-sufficient in food production since the 1980s. The agricultural output has been growing at a respectable rate. However, since the 1980s, agriculture has been in a state of decline in comparison to the total economy. Agricultural loans are issued with negative interest rates. Today, many of the institutions established between 1930 and 1980 continue to play important roles in the practices of farmers.
Historically, Turkey's farmers have been fairly fragmented. According to the 1990 Census, "85% of agricultural holdings were under 10 hectares and 57% of these were fragmented into four or more non-contiguous plots." Many old agricultural attitudes remain widespread, but these traditions are expected to change with the EU accession process. Turkey is dismantling the incentive system. Fertiliser and pesticide subsidies have been curtailed and remaining price supports have been gradually converted to floor prices. The government has also initiated many planned projects, such as the Southeastern Anatolia Project (G.A.P project). The advent of the G.A.P promises a very prosperous future for the southeastern agriculture.
Given all the efforts of the government, agricultural extension and research services are, in relative terms, inadequately organized in Turkey. This has been attributed to shortages of qualified advisers, transportation, and equipment. Agricultural research is distributed among nearly 100 government institutions and universities. The inability to spread the use of new technologies has been attributed to a reluctance of trained personnel to work in the field. The pay disparity in this sector is traditionally very high and incentives to train people do not cover this gap. Research is organized by commodity, with independent units for such major crops as cotton, tobacco, and citrus fruit. Observers note that coordination of the efforts of different research units and links between extension services are inadequate.
The livestock industry, compared to the initial years of the Republic, showed little improvement in productivity, and the later years of the decade saw stagnation. However livestock products, including meat, milk, wool, and eggs, contributed to more than ⅓ of the value of agricultural output. Fishing is another important part of the economy.

Industrial sector

The largest industry is textiles and clothing (16.3% of total industrial capacity in 2005 according to the State Institute of Statistics), followed by oil refinery (14.5%), food (10.6%), chemicals (10.3%), iron and steel (8.9%), automotive (6.3%), and machinery (5.8%). Textiles and clothing also constitutes the largest share in total exports (19% in 2005), followed by automotive (18%), iron and steel (13%), white goods (10%), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (9%), and machinery (7%). Turkish companies made clothing exports worth $13.98 billion in 2006; more than $10.67 billion of which (76.33%) were made to the EU member states.
Turkey's Vestel Electronics is the largest TV producer in Europe, accounting for a quarter of all TV sets manufactured and sold on the continent. By January 2005, Vestel and its rival Turkish electronics and white goods brand BEKO accounted for more than half of all TV sets manufactured in Europe. Another Turkish electronics brand, Profilo-Telra, was Europe's third largest TV producer in 2005. EU market share of Turkish companies in consumer electronics has increased significantly following the Customs Union agreement signed between the EU and Turkey: in color TVs from 5% in 1995 to more than 50% in 2005, in digital devices from 3% to 15%, and in white goods from 3% to 18%. Turkey also has a large and growing automotive industry, which produced 1,024,987 motor vehicles in 2006, ranking as the 6th largest automotive producer in Europe; behind Germany (5,819,614), France (3,174,260), Spain (2,770,435), the United Kingdom (1,648,388), and Italy (1,211,594), respectively. The automotive industry is an important part of the economy since the late 1990s. The companies in the sector are mainly located in the Marmara Region. Existing motor vehicle production capacity of the automotive industry in Turkey is 1,024,987 units per year, as of 2006. The combined capacity of the 6 companies producing passenger cars stood at 726,000 units per year in 2002, reaching 991,621 units per year in 2006. In 2002, FIAT/Tofas had 34% of this capacity, Oyak/Renault 31%, Hyundai/Assan and Toyota 14% each, Honda 4%, and Ford/Otosan 3%. With a cluster of car-makers and parts suppliers, the Turkish automotive sector, the 17th largest producer of passenger cars (991,621 units) in the world in 2006, has become an integral part of the global network of production bases and now exporting over USD 14 billion (2002) worth of motor vehicles and components.
Turkey is also one of the leading shipbuilding nations; in 2007 the country ranked 4th in the world (behind China, South Korea and Japan) in terms of the number of ordered ships, and also 4th in the world (behind Italy, USA and Canada) in terms of the number of ordered mega yachts.
Izmir Ataturk Organized Industrial Zone (IAOIZ) is one of the largest and most modern organized industrial zones in Turkey.

Construction and contracting sector

The Turkish construction and contracting industry is one of the leading, most competitive and dynamic construction/contracting industries in the world. In 2007 a total of 22 Turkish construction/contracting companies were selected for the Top International Contractors List prepared by the Engineering News-Record, which made the Turkish construction/contracting industry the world's 3rd largest, ranking behind those of the USA and China.

Anadol A1 (1966-1975) makes its
international debut at the London
Motor Show in Earls Court, 1968



Turkish automotive companies like
TEMSA, Otokar and BMC are among the
world's largest van, bus and truck manufacturers



Anadol STC-16 (1973-1975)
was Turkey's first sports car



Etox is a new Turkish sports car brand,
based in Ankara



Turkish brands like BEKO and Vestel are
among the largest producers of consumer
electronics and home appliances in Europe

Service sector

Transport

The rail network was 8,682 km in 1999, including 2,133 km of electrified track. The Turkish State Railways started building high-speed rail lines in 2003. The first line, which has a length of 533 km from Istanbul (Turkey's largest metropolis) via Eskişehir to Ankara (the capital) is under construction and will reduce the travelling time from 6–7 hours to 3 hours and 10 minutes. The Ankara-Eskişehir section of the line, which has a length of 245 km and a projected travel time of 65 minutes, is completed. Trials began on April 23, 2007, and revenue earning service began on March 13, 2009. The Eskişehir-Istanbul section of the line is scheduled to be completed by 2009, and includes the Marmaray tunnel which will enter service in 2012 and establish the first ever railway connection between Europe and Anatolia.
The road network was an estimated 382,397 km in 1999, including 95,599 km of paved roads and 1,749 km of motorways. There are 1,200 km of navigable waterways. There were 118 airports in 1999, including six international airports in Istanbul, Ankara, İzmir, Trabzon, Dalaman and Antalya.

TCDD high speed train

Communications

For more details on this topic, see Communications in Turkey.
Telecommunications were liberalised in 2004 after the creation of the Telecommunication Authority. Private sector companies operate in mobile telephony and Internet access. There were 19 million fixed phone lines, 36 million mobile phones, and 12 million Internet users by the August, 2005.

Tourism sector

Tourism is one of the most dynamic and fastest developing sectors in Turkey. According to travel agencies TUI AG and Thomas Cook, 11 of the 100 best hotels of the world are located in Turkey. In 2005, there were 24,124,501 visitors to the country, who contributed $18.2 billion to Turkey's revenues, with an average expenditure of $679 per tourist. In 2008, the number of visitors rose to 30,929,192, who contributed $21.9 billion to Turkey's revenues. Over the years, Turkey has emerged as a popular tourist destination for many Europeans, competing with Greece, Italy and Spain. Resorts in provinces such as Antalya and Muğla (which are located in the Turkish Riviera) have become very popular among European tourists.

Esenboğa International Airport in Ankara

Financial sector

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası) was founded in 1930, as a privileged joint-stock company. It possesses the sole right to issue notes. It also has the obligation to provide for the monetary requirements of the state agricultural and commercial enterprises. All foreign exchange transfers are exclusively handled by the central bank. The bank has 25 domestic branches, as well as branches in New York, London, Frankfurt, and Zurich.
In 1998 there were 72 banks. In late 2000 and early 2001 a growing trade deficit and weaknesses in the banking sector plunged the economy into crisis. There was a recession followed by the floating of the lira. This financial breakdown brought the number of banks to 31. Currently more than 34% of the assets are concentrated in the Agricultural Bank (Ziraat Bankası), Housing Bank (Yapı Kredi Bankası), Isbank (Türkiye İş Bankası) and Akbank. The five big state-owned banks were restructured in 2001. Political involvement was minimized and loaning policies were changed. However, over-staffing remains a problem. There are also numerous international banks, such as ABN Amro, Banca di Roma, BNP Paribas, Citibank, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Dexia, Fortis, HSBC, ING Bank, J. P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Société Générale, UniCredit and WestLB, which have branches in Turkey. A number of Arabian trading banks, which practice an Islamic (without interest rates) type of banking, are also present in the country.
The Istanbul Stock Exchange opened in 1985, while the Istanbul Gold Exchange was established in 1995. The stock market capitalisation of listed companies in Turkey was valued at $161,537,000,000 in 2005 by the World Bank.
Government regulations passed in 1929 required all insurance companies to reinsure 30% of each policy with National Reinsurance Corp. In 1954, life insurance was exempted from this requirement. The insurance market is officially regulated through the Ministry of Commerce.
After years of low levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), in 2007 Turkey succeeded in attracting $21.9 billion in FDI and is expected to attract a higher figure in following years. A series of large privatizations, the stability fostered by the start of Turkey’s EU accession negotiations, strong and stable growth, and structural changes in the banking, retail, and telecommunications sectors have all contributed to the rise in foreign investment. Turkey has taken steps to improve its investment climate through administrative streamlining, an end to foreign investment screening, and strengthened intellectual property legislation. However, a number of disputes involving foreign investors in Turkey and certain policies, such as high taxation of cola products and continuing gaps in the intellectual property regime, inhibit investment. Turkey has a number of bilateral investment and tax treaties, including with the United States, that guarantee free repatriation of capital in convertible currencies and eliminate double taxation.
In recent years the economic situation has been marked by erratic economic growth and serious imbalances. Real GNP growth has exceeded 6% in many years, but this strong expansion has been interrupted by sharp declines in output in 1994, 1999, and 2001. Meanwhile the public sector fiscal deficit has regularly exceeded 10% of GDP - due in large part to the huge burden of interest payments, which in 2001 accounted for more than 50% of central government spending - while inflation has remained in the high double digit range. Since 2003, the inflation has lowered to single digits, and the economy is showing an average growth of 7.8%, between 2002-2005. Fiscal deficit is benefiting (though in small amount) from large industry privatizations. Banking came under stress beginning in October 2008 as Turkish banking authorities warned state-run banks against the pullback of loans from the larger financial sectors.
In recent years, the chronically high inflation has been brought under control and this has led to the launch of a new currency, the "New Turkish lira", on January 1, 2005, to cement the acquisition of the economic reforms and erase the vestiges of an unstable economy. On January 1, 2009, the New Turkish lira was renamed once again as the "Turkish lira", with the introduction of new banknotes and coins.

Levent financial district in Istanbul

Largest companies

In 2008, 14 Turkish companies were listed in the Forbes Global 2000 list - an annual ranking of the top 2000 public companies in the world by Forbes magazine. The 10 leading companies are:

External trade and investment

Turkey is one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in central and eastern Europe and the CIS, with more than $1.5 billion invested. Of this, 32% has been invested in Russia, primarily in the natural resources and construction sectors, and an additional 46% in Turkey’s Black Sea neighbours, Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, Turkish firms have sizeable recorded FDI stocks in Poland ($100 million).
The Turkish Construction/Contracting Industry has been a significant player (e.g. Enka, Tekfen, Gama and Üçgen İnşaat, etc) as well as the three industrial groups, namely Anadolu Efes Group, ŞişeCam Group and Vestel Group.
Turkey's exports reached $115.3 billion in 2007, but imports rose to $162.1 billion, mostly due to the country's rising demand for energy resources like natural gas and crude oil. Turkey targets exports of $200 billion in 2013, and a total trade volume of at least $450 billion. Turkish export mix has changed considerably in the last two decades. Share of natural gas decreased from 74% in 1980 to 30% in 1990 and 12% in 2005. Share of mid/high technology products has increased from 5% in 1980 to 14% in 1990 and 43% in 2005.
Turkey's main trading partners are the European Union (59% of exports and 52% of imports as of 2005), the United States, Russia and Japan. Turkey has taken advantage of a customs union with the European Union, signed in 1995, to increase its industrial production destined for exports, while at the same time benefiting from EU-origin foreign investment into the country.

Turkish exports in 2006

Natural resources

Turkey ranks tenth in the world in terms of the diversity of minerals produced in the country. Around 60 different minerals are currently produced in Turkey. The richest mineral deposits in the country are boron salts and Turkey’s reserves amount to 72% of the world’s total.
Turkey is an oil producer, but the level of production isn't enough to make the country self sufficient. As a result, it is a net oil and gas importer.
The pipeline network in Turkey included 1,738 km for crude oil, 2,321 km for petroleum products, and 708 km for natural gas in 1999. Several major new pipelines are planned, especially the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline for Caspian oilfields, the longest one in the world, which recently opened in 2005.
According to the CIA World Factbook, other natural resources include coal, iron ore, copper, chromium, uranium, antimony, mercury, gold, barite, borate, celestine (strontium), emery, feldspar, limestone, magnesite, marble, perlite, pumice, pyrites (sulfur), clay, arable land, hydropower, and geothermal power.
The ore borax, from which boron is extracted is very abundant in Turkey. Turkey is by far the world's largest producer of boron.

Energy

To cover the increasing energy needs of its population and ensure the continued raising of its living standard, Turkey plans several nuclear power plants. Nuclear power proposals were presented as early as in the 1960s, but plans were repeatedly canceled even after bids were made by interested manufacturers because of high costs and safety concerns. Turkey has always chosen Candu nuclear reactors because they burn natural uranium which is cheap and available locally and because they can be refueled online. This has caused uneasy feelings to Turkey's neighbors because they are ideal for producing weapons grade plutonium.
Turkey has the 5th highest direct utilization and capacity of geothermal power in the world.
Turkey is a partner country of the EU INOGATE energy programme, which has four key topics: enhancing energy security, convergence of member state energy markets on the basis of EU internal energy market principles, supporting sustainable energy development, and attracting investment for energy projects of common and regional interest.

Labor

Turkey's workforce is flexible, with a wide spectrum of skills from the unskilled to highly qualified. Turkey is obliged to apply EU (European Union) employment and social laws to qualify for membership. In January 2007, Eurostat calculated the minimum wage in Turkey as €298, which was higher than the minimum wage in nine European Union member states, namely Bulgaria (€92), Romania (€114), Latvia (€172), Lithuania (€174), Slovakia (€217), Estonia (€230), Poland (€246), Hungary (€258) and the Czech Republic (€288); while lower than the minimum wage in Portugal (€470). Average wages in 2007 hover around $32-39 per day.

Environment

With the establishment of the Turkish Environment Ministry in 1991, Turkey began to make significant progress addressing some of its most pressing environmental problems. The most dramatic improvements were significant reductions of air pollution in Istanbul and Ankara. The most pressing needs are for water treatment plants, waste water treatment facilities, solid waste management and conservation of biodiversity. On average, the environmental performance of private corporations is much better than the large number of state owned enterprises.

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Economic History of Turkey

The economic history of the Republic of Turkey has distinct sections which can be classified between WWI to end of WWII, post 1950, reforms under Özal and early 1990s. However one distinct characteristic between 1923 - 1985, in large part as a result of government policies, a backward economy developed into a complex economic system producing a wide range of agricultural, industrial, and service products for both domestic and export markets the economy grew at an average annual rate of six percent.

From World War I to World War II

At the time of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire (see Economy of the Ottoman Empire) during World War I and the subsequent birth of the Republic, the Turkish economy was underdeveloped: agriculture depended on outmoded techniques and poor-quality livestock, and Turkey's industrial base was weak; the few factories producing basic products such as sugar and flour were under foreign control as a result of the capitulations.
World War I and the War of Independence (1919–22) also had extensively disrupted the Turkish economy. The loss of Ottoman territories, for example, cut off Anatolia from traditional markets. Agricultural output – the source of income for most of the population – had dropped sharply as peasants went to war. Even the production of wheat, Turkey's main crop, was insufficient to meet domestic demand.
Turkey's economy recovered remarkably once hostilities ceased. From 1923 to 1926, agricultural output rose by eighty-seven percent, as agricultural production returned to pre-war levels. Industry and services grew at more than nine percent per year from 1923 to 1929; however, their share of the economy remained quite low at the end of the decade. By 1930, as a result of the world depression, external markets for Turkish agricultural exports had collapsed, causing a sharp decline in national income. The government stepped in during the early 1930s to promote economic recovery, following a doctrine known as etatism. Growth slowed during the worst years of the depression, except between 1935 and 1939 when it reached six percent per year. During the 1940s, the economy stagnated, in large part because maintaining armed neutrality during World War II increased the country's military expenditures while almost entirely curtailing foreign trade.

Under Atatürk economy advanced from state based
polices to mixed economy aligned with the increase
in the capital in the society

Post 1950

After 1950 the country suffered economic disruptions about once a decade; the most serious crisis occurred in the late 1970s. In each case, an industry-led period of rapid expansion, marked by a sharp increase in exports, resulted in a balance of payments crisis. Devaluations of the Turkish lira and austerity programs designed to dampen domestic demand for foreign goods were implemented in accordance with International Monetary Fund guidelines. These measures usually led to sufficient improvement in the country's external accounts to make possible the resumption of loans to Turkey by foreign creditors. Although the military interventions of 1960 and 1971 were prompted in part by economic difficulties, after each intervention Turkish politicians boosted government spending, causing the economy to overheat. In the absence of serious structural reforms, Turkey ran chronic current account deficits usually financed by external borrowing that made the country's external debt rise from decade to decade, reaching by 1980 about US$16.2 billion, or more than one-quarter of annual gross domestic product. Debt-servicing costs in that year equaled 33 percent of exports of goods and services.
By the late 1970s, Turkey's economy had perhaps reached its worst crisis since the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Turkish authorities had failed to take sufficient measures to adjust to the effects of the sharp increase in world oil prices in 1973–74 and had financed the resulting deficits with short-term loans from foreign lenders. By 1979 inflation had reached triple-digit levels, unemployment had risen to about 15 percent, industry was using only half its capacity, and the government was unable to pay even the interest on foreign loans. It seemed that Turkey would be able to sustain crisis-free development only if major changes were made in the government's import-substitution approach to development. Many observers doubted the ability of Turkish politicians to carry out the needed reforms.

Reforms under Özal

In January 1980, the government of Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel (who had served as prime minister 1965–71, 1975–78, and 1979–80) began implementing a far-reaching reform program designed by then Undersecretary of the Prime Ministry Turgut Özal to shift Turkey's economy toward export-led growth.
The Özal strategy called for import-substitution policies to be replaced with policies designed to encourage exports that could finance imports, giving Turkey a chance to break out of the postwar pattern of alternating periods of rapid growth and deflation. With this strategy, planners hoped Turkey could experience export-led growth over the long run. The government pursued these goals by means of a comprehensive package: devaluation of the Turkish lira and institution of flexible exchange rates, maintenance of positive real interest rates and tight control of the money supply and credit, elimination of most subsidies and the freeing of prices charged by state enterprises, reform of the tax system, and encouragement of foreign investment. In July 1982, when Özal left office, many of his reforms were placed on hold. Starting in November 1983, however, when he again became prime minister, he was able to extend the liberalization program.
The liberalization program overcame the balance of payments crisis, reestablished Turkey's ability to borrow in international capital markets, and led to renewed economic growth. Merchandise exports grew from US$2.3 billion in 1979 to US$8.3 billion in 1985. Merchandise import growth in the same period – from US$4.8 billion to US$11.2 billion – did not keep pace with export growth and proportionately narrowed the trade deficit, although the deficit level stabilized at around US$2.5 billion. Özal's policies had a particularly positive impact on the services account of the current account. Despite a jump in interest payments, from US$200 million in 1979 to US$1.4 billion in 1985, the services account accumulated a growing surplus during this period. Expanding tourist receipts and pipeline fees from Iraq were the main reasons for this improvement. Stabilizing the current account helped restore creditworthiness on international capital markets. Foreign investment, which had been negligible in the 1970s, now started to grow, although it remained modest in the mid-1980s. Also, Turkey was able to borrow on the international market, whereas in the late 1970s it could only seek assistance from the IMF and other official creditors.
The reduction in public expenditures, which was at the heart of the stabilization program, slowed the economy sharply in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Real gross national product declined 1.5 percent in 1979 and 1.3 percent in 1980. The manufacturing and services sectors felt much of the impact of this drop in income, with the manufacturing sector operating at close to 50 percent of total capacity. As the external-payments constraint eased, the economy bounced back sharply. Between 1981 and 1985, real GNP grew 3 percent per year, led by growth in the manufacturing sector. With tight controls on workers' earnings and activities, the industrial sector began drawing on unused industrial capacity and raised output by an average rate of 9.1 percent per year between 1981 and 1985. The devaluation of the lira also helped make Turkey more economically competitive. As a result, exports of manufactures increased by an average rate of 45 percent per annum during this period.
The rapid resurgence of growth and the improvement in the balance of payments were insufficient to overcome unemployment and inflation, which remained serious problems. The official jobless rate fell from 15 percent in 1979 to 11 percent in 1980, but, partly because of the rapid growth of the labor force, unemployment rose again, to 13 percent in 1985. Inflation fell to about 25 percent in the 1981–82 period, but it climbed again, to more than 30 percent in 1983 and more than 40 percent in 1984. Although inflation eased somewhat in 1985 and 1986, it remained one of the primary problems facing economic policy makers.

Economic performance in the early 1990s

Turkey benefited economically from the Iran–Iraq War (1980–88). Both Iran and Iraq became major trading partners, and Turkish business supplied both combatants, encouraged by government export credits. With limited access to the Persian Gulf, Iraq also came to depend heavily on Turkey for export routes for its crude oil. Iraq had financed two pipelines located next to one another from its northern Kirkuk oilfields to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Yumurtalık, slightly northwest of İskenderun. The capacity of the pipelines totaled around 1.1 million barrels per day (170,000 m³/d) (bpd). Not only did Turkey obtain part of its domestic supplies from the pipeline, but it was paid a sizable entrepôt fee. Some sources have estimated this fee at US$300 million to US$500 million.
Turkey's economy was battered by the 1991 Persian Gulf War. The UN embargo on Iraq required the ending of oil exports through the Kirkuk-Yumurtalık pipelines, resulting in the loss of the pipeline fees. In addition, the economy may have lost as much as US$3 billion in trade with Iraq. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) moved to compensate Turkey for these losses, however, and by 1992 the economy again began to grow rapidly.
The Turkish economy again was plunged into crisis in 1994. The central government's moves in 1992 and 1993 to grant large salary increases to civil servants and to increase transfers to state enterprises enlarged the public-sector borrowing requirement to a record 17 percent of GDP in 1993. This high government spending sharply boosted domestic demand's rate of growth to 6.4 percent in 1992 and 7.6 percent in 1993. In turn, inflation rates went up, with the annual rate peaking at 73 percent in mid-1993. The resulting rise in the real exchange rate translated into increased imports and slowed the expansion of exports. The trade deficit rose in 1993 to US$14 billion, while the current account deficit reached US$6.3 billion, or 5.3 percent of GDP.
Turkey's impressive economic performance in the 1980s won high marks from Wall Street's credit-rating agencies. In 1992 and 1993, the government used these ratings to attract funds to cover its budget deficits. International bond issues over this period amounted to US$7.5 billion. These capital flows helped maintain the overvalued exchange rate. In a market economy, a high level of government borrowing should translate into higher domestic interest rates and even possibly "crowd out" private-sector borrowers, thereby eventually slowing economic growth. But the government's foreign borrowing took the pressure off domestic interest rates and actually spurred more private-sector borrowing in an already overheated economy. Sensing an easy profit opportunity during this period, commercial banks borrowed at world interest rates and lent at Turkey's higher domestic rates without fear of a depreciating currency. As a result, Turkey's foreign short-term debt rose sharply. External and internal confidence in the government's ability to manage the impending balance of payments crisis waned, compounding economic difficulties.
Disputes between Prime Minister Tansu Çiller (1993–1996 ) and the Central Bank governor undermined confidence in the government. The prime minister insisted on monetizing the fiscal deficit (selling government debt instruments to the Central Bank) rather than acceding to the Central Bank's proposal to issue more public debt in the form of government securities. The Central Bank governor resigned in August 1993 over this issue. In January 1994, international credit agencies downgraded Turkey's debt to below investment grade. At that time, a second Central Bank governor resigned.
Mounting concern over the disarray in economic policy was reflected in an accelerated "dollarization" of the economy as residents switched domestic assets into foreign-currency deposits to protect their investments. By the end of 1994, about 50 percent of the total deposit base was held in the form of foreign-currency deposits, up from 1 percent in 1993. The downgrading by credit-rating agencies and a lack of confidence in the government's budget deficit target of 14 percent of GDP for 1994 triggered large-scale capital flight and the collapse of the exchange rate. The government had to intervene by selling its foreign-currency reserves to staunch the decline of the Turkish lira. As a result, reserves fell from US$6.3 billion at the end of 1993 to US$3 billion by the end of March 1994. Before the end of April, when the government was forced to announce a long-overdue austerity program following the March 1994 local elections, the lira had plummeted by 76 percent from the end of 1993 to TL41,000 against the United States dollar.
The package of measures announced by the government on April 5, 1994, was also submitted to the IMF as part of its request for a US$740 million standby facility beginning in July 1994. Measures included a sharp increase in prices the public-sector enterprises would charge the public, decreases in budgetary expenditures, a commitment to raise taxes, and a pledge to accelerate privatization of state economic enterprises (SEEs). Some observers questioned the credibility of these measures, given that the tax measures translated into a revenue increase equivalent to 4 percent of GDP and the expenditure cuts were equivalent to 6 percent of GDP.
The government actually succeeded in generating a small surplus in the budget during the second quarter of 1994, mainly as a result of higher taxes, after running a deficit of 17 percent of GDP in the first quarter. The slowdown in government spending, a sharp loss in business confidence, and the resulting decline in economic activity reduced tax revenues, however. The fiscal crisis resulted in a decline in real GDP of 5 percent in 1994 after the economy had grown briskly in 1992 and 1993. Real wages also fell in 1994: average nominal wage increases of 65 percent were about 20 percent below the rate of consumer price inflation.
Analysts pointed out that despite the fragility of the macroeconomic adjustment process and the susceptibility of fiscal policy to political pressures, the government continued to be subject to market checks and balances. Combined with a stronger private sector, particularly on the export front, the economy was expected to bounce back to a pattern of faster growth.

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